We have just completed the final quarter, not only of the year, but also the decade, so it’s as good a time as any to reflect back on the market behavior for the past year, and also for the past 10 years. The short version is that we have experienced a bull market for the entire ten-year period, with no -20% bear market periods and only a few 10% corrections since June 2009. People who record the history of the markets will remember that the investors of the 2010s participated in the longest bull market in American history–a totally improbably event considering that the decade came right after one of the most dramatic market setbacks in modern times.
Also worth noting is how the predictors of doom were once again totally off-base. When the Federal Reserve Board stepped in to stem the worst of the Great Recession, there were widespread cries that the Fed was “printing money” in a way that would lead to massive inflation and/or the bursting of a stock market bubble. Today, an expansionist Fed is routinely criticized for being too tight, rather than too loose. Inflation, meanwhile, has ranged from 0.7% to 2.1%–which hardly signals a crisis. If you’ve noticed any bubble-bursting in the equities markets, please help us find it.
By any measure, 2019 was a remarkable year for investors–and who could have guessed? Stocks went on sale in December 2018, and many were predicting that the bearish trend would continue through calendar 2019. But investors who took advantage of the lower prices or stayed the course saw well-above-average gains almost literally across the board. The markets went on sale again in August when there were reports of a very slight inversion of the yield curve in the bond markets which (it was widely reported) signaled that a recession was on the near horizon. Those rumors turned out to be false and the yield curve–that is, the difference in bond rates between short-term and long-term issues–had subsequently steepened.
It’s hard to overstate how unusual this long bull market has been in investing history. Bear markets tend to occur about every 3.5 years, and the previous record was 9.5 years from November 1990 to March of 2000. However, we still have a ways to go to match the 418% that was achieved in the 1990s.
Longer-term, it is certain that we will experience a recession, but no person alive can predict the hour or the day. Most economists are reluctant to predict an economic downturn when unemployment is at record lows and the slow-growth economy is chugging along with a 2.3% gain in 2019. 2020 might see a recession or at least a slowdown in growth if there is another trade conflict with China, and a shift toward rising interest rates could drive up the cost of debt servicing for corporations that are highly leveraged. Nobody knows where the Presidential impeachment process will go from here.
At the same time, dramatic increases in domestic oil production has lessened the possibility that the economy will experience an energy recession, and healthcare cost increases have moderated over the course of the decade.
Similarly, nobody can predict when or how the bull market will end, how deep the coming recession or bear market will be, or, really, anything other than the fact that all past downturns were followed by upturns which took the markets and the economy to new heights.Categories: Important Updates